The Underwear Olympics are over. The final 40s have been run. Rich Eisen broke his personal best (and raised some money for St. Jude's). What does all this mean? It means that its time for me to throw my hat in the ring. Its time for me to try to predict the most unpredictable event on the NFL calendar - the NFL Draft.
I'm not going to flood you with mocks every week - there's no point in doing that when the draft is still two months out. But, seeing as the Combine is the first real hype-generator for the draft, I figured a mock was warranted here.
A few ground rules: (1) Trades are not considered; I may comment about them, but the mocks will not feature them. (2) Picks are based on team needs without considering impending free agents; i.e. Linebacker isn't a need for the Broncos because Treveathen and Marshall are impending FA's. This will be the only time that rule 2 is in effect, as my next mock will be a post-free agent frenzy mock.
I doubt many of you actually read the above, so let's get to some picks, shall we?
1. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
The Ole Miss tackle seems to be the consensus pick if the Titans keep the top pick, and with good reason. The team has to protect its most valuable asset, Marcus Mariota, especially when they have to play J.J. Watt twice every season.
Tunsil is an athletic, All-American tackle that played in a very talented SEC and played well. Most scouts believe that the transition to the NFL will be a generally smooth one.
2. Cleveland Browns: Jared Goff, QB, California
The first QB off the board goes to the most QB-needy team in the last decade, most people are calling this one. However, Jared Goff isn't the guy that most mocks have standing at the podium with Goddell after the second pick.
Goff is the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, and that's what the Browns NEED. This team doesn't need another guy that has "some learning to do" or "some adjustments to make" before he's a viable starter. The Browns need a Day 1 starter, and Goff is just the guy to provide the stability that Cleveland tries so desperately to avoid.
3. San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The (still) San Diego Chargers need to revamp their 3-4 defense, and Bosa fits in here perfectly. He can clearly assist the pass-rush, but also showed at the Combine that he can drop back into coverage and support a Chargers defense that muddled in the middle of the league in almost all passing categories last season.
Bosa will also fit right in because he sounds like Jeff Spicoli when he talks - you decide if that's a compliment.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
Another QB off the board. The Cowboys have to pick a QB here because, with their team at full health, they can't expect to be back this high in the draft any time soon. Finding a suitable successor to Tony Romo, who has played only 12 games both of the last two seasons, now could give the Cowboys what I'm calling "The Rodgers Effect".
Am I forgetting someone? I know, Lynch is a somewhat surprising here, but don't be surprised if the swaggy Memphis kid starts rising up teams' draft boards. He has the measurables that someone could want, was dominant in college (28 TDs, 3 INTs in '15), and he's athletic. The complaint? He's not a finished product; he needs time to learn and refine before he'll be ready to start. Man, if only he could go to a team where he could sit behind an established, All-Pro QB that could teach him up and give him time to get ready for the pro game.....oh wait!
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State
The Jags have more needs than any other team in the draft. Its time to draft the best player on the board, and that's Ramsey in this case.
Ramsey proved that he is uber athletic at the Combine (4.42 40, 41.5 vert., 11.25 ft. broad jump). On top of the athleticism, Ramsey showed in his time as a 'Nole that he can adequately play both safety and corner, which has led to a dilemma for some teams in pegging his ideal position. In the Jags case, Ramsey's versatility works to their advantage. Their defense is still a work in progress, so having multi-functionality can be extremely helpful.
6. Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
The Ravens could use an injection of youth in their offensive line (29 avg. age), especially after extending franchise QB Joe Flacco for another 3 years. This team needs to protect the new highest-paid player in the NFL. Furthermore, starting left tackle Eugene Monroe has missed 15 games in the last two seasons.
Stanley is long and athletic and has the ability to get downfield. His strength can be suspect at times, but he has been a staple in a vert talented Notre Dame line for the last 3 seasons. He is easily the next best option behind Tunsil in this year's draft.
7. San Fransisco 49ers: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
SEE, I didn't forget about him! The 49ers are another team, like the Browns, that may very well be in need of a Game 1 signal-caller. New head coach Chip Kelly will be looking for someone to run his unique system and though it would seem that he already has the perfect guy to run it in Colin Kaepernick, it doesn't seem Kaep' will be sticking around.
Wentz has really impressed scouts both on and off the field. The reason for his fall here is simply need-based. If I took trades into account this pick could easily be made at the third spot. Either way, Chip gets a quarterback with play-calling experience and a clear ability to handle a complex system like Chip's, both athletically (10 rushing TDs in last 2 seasons) and intellectually.
8. Miami Dolphins: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
The Dolphins could use both a immediate and long-term boost in their secondary, with the team's #1, Brent Grimes, in the final stages of his career. In Hargreaves the 'phins get the best pure corner in the draft and keep the Tampa, FL native close to home.
Hargreaves didn't wow with his measurables at the Combine, but he didn't disappoint either; he really showed his superiority in the on-field drills. Hargreaves' instincts are top-notch and he can get in and out of breaks with fluidity. He is far from a finished product, but he will be good enough to start Day 1 and can grow into the #1 role.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DeForest Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
The Bucs' had the No. 26 pass defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. The reason for the team's deficiency was a combination of a horrendous secondary and a lackluster pass-rush.
Buckner has the ability to play both inside and outside. He also has a domineering frame (6'7, 290 lbs.) to pair with his strength and athletic ability. At this point, it appears that he could go anywhere in the top 10.
10. New York Giants: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
This pick is the one nearest to my heart...like the shrapnel in Iron Man's chest - one false move could ruin me. The Giants haven't had a legitimate star-quality linebacker since Antonio Pierce left the team in 2010. Many scouts don't see Jack falling to the 10th pick, but based on who's picking before them, I think the Giants could be faced with this no-brainer on draft night.
Jack has great upside; it's entirely possible that we hadn't seen his full potential before his junior year ACL tear. He really showed his star potential when he won the Pac-10's Offensive and Defensive Freshman of the Year. His cover abilities would be like a breathe of fresh air for Giants fans begging for their first 1st round LB since Carl Banks.
11. Chicago Bears: A'Shawn Robinson, DT/NT, Alabama
The Bears defense was suspect up the middle last season, ranking three from the bottom of the league in yards per-carry last season (4.5 YPC). Though second-round pick Eddie Goldman played well in his first season at NT, the Bears need more help at the point of attack.
Enter: A'Shawn Robinson. Robinson has the size (6'4, 320 lbs.) to be a run stuffer, while also having the agility to play 3-4 end and get after the quarterback.
12. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
The Saints are trying to recover from the dismantling they received at the hands of former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The team finished 27th in sacks (31) last season and could use someone to pair along with Pro-Bowl end Cameron Jordan.
Rankins is a tackle with some solid wheels, and that speed lets him get after the passer. His best season came in his junior year when he was paired with Jets' 2015 second-round pick Lorenzo Mauldin (9 sacks, 14.5 TFL). The Saints could try to recreate this effect with Jordan to take the pressure off and let Rankins put the pressure on.
13. Philadelphia Eagles: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
The Eagles could use some help at the guard position and their rock at tackle, Jason Peters, will be 34 this season and is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning.
This could be seen as a few picks early for Conklin, but he had a strong showing at the Combine and that could bump his stock for sure. Conklin has the versatility to start inside while he awaits his opportunity to shift outside upon Peters' departure.
14. Oakland Raiders: Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
The Raiders offense has taken great form and looks ready to take on the world - now it's time for the defense to catch up. The team needs to build around their monster, Khalil Mack. A corner would address the most glaring weakness on the defensive side of the ball.
The reports on Alexander are extremely mixed. Some say he can be a first-rounder, others say he could go in the third or fourth. Some say he is a nickel, others see him as a straight-up cover corner. Far be it for the Raiders to be risk-averse. It's boom or bust with this one, sort of like when the team took D.J. Hayden 12th overall in 2013.
15. Los Angeles Rams: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
The Rams will almost certainly go after a QB at some point in the draft, but at this point it doesn't make sense. A case could be made that the Rams would look to reload their defense after the recent cap casualties and impending FA's, but it's L.A, it's showtime! So the team opts to go for a star-studded 1-2 punch with Gurley and Treadwell in back-to-back years.
Treadwell has moments on film that really make you go "WOW!" He's as tough as they come, he wins the 50-50 plays, and he's a disciplined route-runner. Some qualms come up about his speed relative to past first-round picks, but he makes up for it with his playmaking abilities.
16. Detroit Lions: Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
The departures of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley left both a figurative and physical hole in the Lions defense. Ziggy Ansah has really come into his own and could use a running mate that could stop the run.
Jarran Reed is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Lions. He's a 311-pound point-of-attack, run stuffing, gap filling, mass of a man. He earned his chops in Saban's Alabama defense and earned himself a reputation in the best conference in college football.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Kevin Dodd, EDGE, Clemson
Atlanta ranked dead least in the NFL with 19 sacks in 2015. In fact, the team only had one player, rookie Vic Beasley, in the top 100 in sacks; and he only had 4.0. This isn't an isolated incident: the team has been in the bottom five in sacks each of the last four seasons.
For a second straight year, the Falcons go with a Clemson rusher with their first choice. Dodd rode the pine for his first two years at Clemson, but once he got his shot he didn't disappoint. Dodd had a tremendous year with 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss, which he capped off with three sacks in the National Championship game.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
The Colts two inside linebackers are past their prime - Freeman at 29 years old and Jackson at 32 years old. The entire Indy defense could use an injection of youth.
Reggie Ragland can be exactly what a team that allowed 120 rushing yards per game last season needs. He's a downhill thumper; a real throwback to the run-stopping backers of the past. His ability to handle speed can be suspect at times, but he is ready to start now. With time, he has the skill and intangibles to become an anchor for a defense.
19. Buffalo Bills: Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky
The Bills just released their premier pass-rusher in Mario Williams, leaving an even greater need for a pass-rusher. The Bills defensive line, without Willams, amassed only 10.5 sacks amongst 8 players. In this situation, Rex and the boys take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward edge rusher.
Spence is clearly a talented young man: He racked up 8 sacks for Ohio State as a sophomore, earning himself first team All-Big Ten honors. Then in 2015, Spence recorded 14.5 sacks (23.5 TFL) for EKU. The reason for his transfer to EKU: Spence failed two drug tests while at Ohio State, and was banned from Big Ten play. He was then arrested for drunk driving in his time at EKU. Spence and this around him swear that he has matured and will be a solution, not a problem, at the NFL level.
20. New York Jets: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Say it with me Jets fans: "ZEEEEEEEKE!" In this scenario, the Jets follow the lead of their cross-town rivals and go with the best available option. The team seems to have found its answer at wideout with Marshall and Decker, and while the quarterback position needs addressing, this spot is not the place to do it. Instead, the Jets get another dynamic piece to add to their QB-less offense, and get a more than capable replacement for Chris Ivory.
Zeke has all of the abilities to be a legitimate three-down back in the NFL. He offers a unique combination of size and speed. He's an elusive, agile, hard-nosed runner. As for his pass-protection abilities, Urban Meyer had this to say about the young man (per NBCSports): "He’s the best player I’ve ever coached without the ball in his hands. Think about that for a minute." That kind of praise is music to any coach's ears.
21. Washington Redskins: Robert Nkemdiche, DT/DE, Ole Miss
This pick will almost certainly change. The Redskins need help with their aging defensive line: their line does not feature a single player under 27 years old. Overall, the team ranked in the bottom third of the league in total, passing, and rushing yards per game (28th, 25th, and 26th, respectively). The Redskins may certainly look to their defensive line to help remedy their defensive woes.
Nkemdiche could be a top-10 pick or he could find himself still looking for a team on Day 2. He has a ideal NFL build and set of abilities. However, his production did not match his potential in his three years as a starter - he recorded only 6.5 sacks in three years. If that wasn't enough, his character issues (prior arrest and team suspension from bowl game) are dropping him off some teams' boards.
22. Houston Texans: Karl Joseph, SS, West Virginia
The Texans could use a QB at some point (*cough* Hackenburg *cough*), but for now they address the glaring need on their defense - safety. This team has swung and missed on both drafting safeties (D.J. Swearinger) and signing them (Ed Reed, Rahim Moore). Last year the team was forced to bits-and-piece its safeties together, with 2014 seventh-rounder Dre Hal and career special-teamer Quintin Demps starting the season at safety.
This spot may be a bit of a reach for Karl Joseph, but not as much as many of you may think. Joseph is Mike Mayock's #1 safety in this year's draft, and with good reason. He is as competitive as they come, is able to cover or sit back, and efficiently channels his aggression on the field to make big plays. Can you tell that I like this guy? Concerns among teams come from an ACL injury that he sustained in a non-contact drill during what looked to be his best season yet (led FBS with 5 INTs through first four weeks of his senior season). However, this pick has the potential to finally be a homerun for Houston if Joseph has a successful recovery.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State
Coach Mike Zimmer stated that the entire offensive line is open to competition going into the upcoming season. The team has some promising pieces in Matt Kalil and T.J. Clemmings at tackle, but could use some new blood up the gut of their line. The offensive line needs to be the backbone of this team if they are to allow AP to get into space and if they want to protect Teddy Touchdown.
Whitehair is being classified as a "safe pick"; he is technically sound and displayed tons of versatility in his college (played every position but center). He is a hard worker, a team captain, workout warrior that will keep his head on straight and earn his keep in the trenches every Sunday.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Andrew Billings, NT/DT, Baylor
The Bengals have a dominant pass-rushing duo in the form of DT Geno Atkins and DE Carlos Dunlap. However, their resident nose tackle, Domata Peko, struggled to stop the run this past year and will be 33 at next season's start. The Bengals need to take action to ensure that their defensive line continues to be the force that helped the team tally 42 sacks and 21 INTs last season.
Billings has the power and agility to be a dominant force at the point of attack. He displayed his power at the combine by putting up 31 bench press reps (most of any prospect) at only 20 years old. Billings' Combine performance should open some eyes and help bump him into the first round conversation for teams seeking an anchor up the middle.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
The Steelers allowed the third most passing yards in the NFL in 2015, due in large part to a revolving door of sub-par corners. The Steelers need to bolster their secondary with the likes of A.J. Green in their division, who averaged 107 yards and a touchdown in 3 games against Pittsburgh in 2015.
Apple has the footwork to be a more than component man corner, but more than that, his toughness and physically allow him to knock receivers off their routes. He will need to refine his physicality to avoid costly penalties at the pro-level, but his sound technique should allow him to do so. His 4.4 speed at the Combine only furthered his case to be a first-round corner.
26. Seattle Seahawks: William Jackson III, CB, Houston
This pick may surprise some; after all, it this is the team heralded for it Legion of Boom in the secondary. However, this past year the Legion was missing a counterpart to its leader, Richard Sherman. To be fair, the team still ranked second in passing yards allowed per game. If this team wants to maintain its core competency, its secondary, it needs to continue to bolster it with new talent.
William Jackson wasn't getting into anybody's first round prior to the Combine. But, after he ran a blazing 4.37 40-yard dash and performed well in on-field drills, people began to take a second look at the lengthy corner out of Houston. Jackson isn't a finished product yet, but he has the raw talent and measurables that make him the archetype of what Seattle seeks in its corners.
27. Green Bay Packers: Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
The Packers have plans to return Clay Matthews to the outside, where he belongs. This will leave an open spot in the Packers roster where there already was a sizable hole. The Pack need to add a few pieces to their weakening linebacker core, and the draft could be a viable route for improvement.
Floyd is projected to be an outside, rushing backer in the NFL. However, many scouts feel that he has the sideline-to-sideline and open field quickness to play in the middle as well. His versatility would benefit the Packers, as they would be able to try him at both inside and outside linebacker as they reconfigure their defense. Floyd also dominated the Combine, ranking in the top-five amongst linebackers in all three events he completed - 40 (4.6), broad (127 in.), and vertical (39.5 in.).
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
It's getting old at this point, isn't it? The Chiefs need receivers. Maclin proved to be good enough to handle #1 duties in Andy Reid's offense, but he can't do it alone. Adding a second wide receiver that can stretch the field could take some pressure off of Maclin and TE Travis Kelce.
Will Fuller was the fastest wideout at this year's Combine (4.32). The Fighting Irish alum uses all of that speed on the field to break off big plays - he averaged 20.1 yards per catch in 2015. Fuller can be boom or bust due to some technique issues, but he has a knack for stretching the field and finding the endzone (15 TDs in '14, 14 in '15). He doesn't have the chops to go over the middle, and should be in a situation where he not often asked to go there (like the Chiefs).
29. Arizona Cardinals: Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
The Arizona Cardinals made it a point to get after the passer this season; they had the highest blitz rate of any NFL team. Unfortunately, this added pressure translated to a underwhelming 21st ranking in sacks (36). The Cardinals need to be able to generate pressure in order to let their ball-hawking secondary utilize its big play abilities.
Shaq Lawson is best fit to play 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. He isn't necessarily a pure pass-rusher, but he is hard to block, which allows him to be a disruptive force in the backfield in both passing and rushing situations. In his one season as a starter at Clemson, Lawson earned All-American honors with 12.5 sacks and 25.5 tackles for loss.
30. Carolina Panthers: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
If the Super Bowl proved anything, it proved that there's room for improvement on the Carolina offensive line. The primary area of concern along the line for the NFC champs is the tackle position. According to Pro Football Focus, no tackle graded nearly as poorly as Michael Oher in 2015. Admittedly, it's not a glaring weakness, but a team that just went 17-2 shouldn't really have glaring weaknesses.
Decker has athleticism and solid power to go along with his prototype NFL frame. He has a good head for the game, is tough, and has developed good habits in his three years as a starter. His technique may be suspect at times, but one NFL scout said (per NFL.com), "he'll be a long-time starting tackle in this league for years."
31. Denver Broncos: Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
The Broncos need to maintain the machine that won them a championship - that defense. One would have to believe, with the amount of free agents the Broncos have to re-sign, that they won't have their full stock of linebackers from this year's championship team.
Darron Lee is a confident, rangy young backer that knows how to fill up the stat sheet. His range and fluid movement allow him to make plays in space. Lee is a bit undersized, but he has room to easily add to his frame as he adjusts to the NFL game.
**NOTE: The draft only has 31 picks because the New England Patriots were stripped of their 2016 first round pick.
Alright, we're done - phew. Stay tuned to see which players rise/fall after the dust settles from the first few weeks of free agency (set to open on March 7th).
Stay up-to-date with all of my sports and other mindless banter on Twitter.
No comments:
Post a Comment