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The NFL Draft is less than four days away, which means time is running out for me to obsess over this thing that I have no control of.
This iteration (5.0, the second to last) sees several new faces in what seems like some sort of fantasy defensive linemen only draft. It also sees Paxton Lynch take a tumble down the boards. Does anyone stop his fall? - Read on to find out:
1. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, California
Consensus is growing among sources that Goff will be the first player chosen this Thursday. So much is being said about these first two picks that I don't think there's much left to say. Goff is the top QB on my board, but the Rams can't really go wrong with either of the top two QB's. Let's not forget, though, neither of these quarterbacks is a sure thing; before the Rams/Titans trade, we were wondering if either player would be taken in the top 10.
2. Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota St.
The Eagles seem to be enamored with Carson Wentz, and I don't think they would have made a deal for #2 without being fairly certain he would be the selection. The work has only begun for Wentz, but he has the tools to be a quality starting QB for years to come.
3. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida St.
The Chargers have focused on improving their defense this offseason; I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend continue in the draft, especially with the talent they will have to choose from. Ramsey is considered by many to be the best defensive player, if not best overall, in the entire draft. He can be the long-term replacement for Eric Weddle or could form a nice 1-2 young duo at CB with 24-year old Pro Bowler Jason Verrett.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio St.
The Cowboys are still searching for a replacement for DeMarcus Ware after the crash and burn of the Greg Hardy experiment. Picking Bosa might not be as sexy as picking Ezekiel Elliott, but it seems to be the more likely scenario right now. The Cowboys stellar offensive line can make up for less than stellar running back play; the defensive line doesn't have that safety net and will need to be built back up. Also, I'll say it again: Bosa seems like a Jerry Jones guy to me.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: DeForest Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
The AFC South is shaping up to feature Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, and Brock Osweiler under center, all of which the Jags will have to face twice per year for the foreseeable future. The addition of Malik Jackson will help fortify the middle of the defensive line, but Jacksonville needs someone to get around the edge and make those young stud quarterbacks nervous. Buckner is strong, athletic, and can move around the line to fit different formations; he is reportedly hearing quite a bit from the Jaguars, according to Rand Getlin.
6. Baltimore Ravens: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
I have long thought that Ozzie Newsome would try to protect the franchise by picking a top offensive tackle here, but the Ravens have a propensity for picking difference-making defenders. It's rare to find a linebacker as talented as Jack in today's college football, and I don't think Ozzie will be able to pass on the chance to pair him with C.J. Mosley for the foreseeable future.
Mock 4.0: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
7. San Fransisco 49ers: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
The Niners have now lost a starting guard in consecutive offseasons (Iupati in 2015, Boone in 2016). Add on to that the fact that the San Fran line was ranked 27th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. Chip Kelly and his staff would be happy to submit this pick on Thursday and bring home the top tackle in the draft. Tunsil's athleticism and quickness would make him an excellent fit in Kelly's offense.
Mock 4.0: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
8. Cleveland Browns: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Offensive line was slated to be the lone bright spot for Cleveland for another season...until they let Mitchell Schwartz leave. Now the Browns have to fill the crack in the team's foundation before it can start rebuilding the offense. Stanley would be a worthy replacement for Schwartz; he could learn from one of the best tackles in the game, Joe Thomas, and eventually become the heir to Thomas' left tackle position.
Mock 4.0: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
As much as I enjoy going against the grain, I'm going to have to side with just about everybody and say that the Bucs go with Hargreaves at No. 9. Tampa would like to be able to get Bosa or Buckner, but Hargreaves will help get the 26th ranked pass defense (according to Football Outsiders) out of the dumps. The Tampa native is the best pure corner in the draft due to his good instincts and fluid mobility.
10. New York Giants: Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
Jerry Reese and the New York Giants are going to draft the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE; the highest player left on their board will be the one they pick. However, the Giants' board doesn't always match up with everyone else's. Floyd is just the unusual athlete (6'6", 244 lbs.) that the Giants love; his blend of rushing and coverage ability remind me of current Giants LB Devon Kennard. Floyd has climbed draft boards as teams realize that he may have more pass-rushing ability than his time at Georgia allowed him to showcase.
Mock 4.0: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
11. Chicago Bears: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
The Bears could be tempted by Elliott here, but John Fox is a defense-first coach. The team is in the market for a new 3-technique to help bolster its defensive line and create havoc in the backfield. Rankins uses his surprising agility to get into the backfield with regularity; he had 14 sacks in his last two seasons at Louisville.
Mock 4.0: Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
12. New Orleans Saints: Kevin Dodd, EDGE, Clemson
The Saints need someone other than Cameron Jordan to put pressure on the quarterback - the team finished 27th in sacks last season. Sean Payton has even been quoted as saying that the team needs to add a pass rusher and a 3-technique. Dodd may have only played one year in high school and one year in college, but he's made the most of it, putting up 12 sacks and 23.5 TFL in 2015. A team like the Saints could stand to take a chance on his raw talent, similar to what the Lions did with Ziggy Ansah in 2013.
Mock 4.0: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
13. Miami Dolphins: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio St.
The team swung and missed on C.J. Anderson after losing its young workhorse back Lamar Miller to the Texans. Adam Gase has said that he likes the backs they have, but I don't buy it. Ezekiel Elliott would be one of the best blocking backs in the league from Day 1 and could prove to be an upgrade over Lamar Miller in no time.
14. Oakland Raiders: William Jackson III, CB, Houston
The Raiders would take a long, hard look at Jack Conklin in this scenario, but the team's biggest needs are on the defensive side of the ball. Even after signing Sean Smith, Reggie McKenzie could look to build up a secondary that lost HOF'er Charles Woodson. WJ3 isn't a finished product by any means, but he is a physical corner with good coverage skills (ranked second in class by Pro Football Focus). His promise could make him an earlier pick than originally anticipated.
15. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan St.
The Titans should have the simple objective of supporting Marcus Mariota with this draft. They would love to be able to draft Conklin at this spot and shore up their right tackle position for the foreseeable future. However, Conklin is climbing boards and the Titans may have to make another move if they want to secure this choice.
16. Detroit Lions: Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
After losing both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, the Lions need to bring in some help for Ziggy Ansah in the middle of that D-line. Jarran Reed was one of the best run-stoppers in college football last year. He makes himself a problem at the point of attack, while also being at putting some pressure on the passer. Reed would fill gaps in the Lions depth chart and out on the field.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
Dan Quinn watched his Atlanta defense finish dead last in the NFL with 19 sacks last season, and he will be looking to change that in this draft. Shaq Lawson's powerful rushing style and bulky frame would be a nice complement to fellow Clemson rusher Vic Beasley's sleek, athletic play style. With this pick, Quinn would be able sick the dogs (or should I say Tigers) on opposing quarterbacks.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio St.
Chuck Pagano has said that the Colts need to improve their offensive line for the last number of years. This team can't afford to see Andrew Luck be put on his back as much as they have at the beginning of his career. Taylor Decker can be the bully that keeps the other bullies away from his quarterback. He will likely be a right tackle at the next level, and the Colts will be just fine with that.
19. Buffalo Bills: Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech.
Butler breaks into the first round for the first time as the Bills try to retool a faltering defensive line. Butler's athleticism, frame, and ability to play anywhere along the line have led to comparisons to Muhammad Wilkerson. Now who was it that drafted Muhammad Wilkerson back in 2011? Hmmmmm....
Mock 4.0: Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky
20. New York Jets: Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky
Spence is considered the best pass rusher in this draft and, were it not for his character issues, he would surely be a top 15 selection at least. However, since leaving Ohio St. Spence's issues have been virtually nonexistent. Bowles and his staff could take what may turn out to not be that big of a gamble and get the steal of the first round if Spence keeps his nose clean.
Mock 4.0: Kevin Dodd, EDGE, Clemson
21. Washington Redskins: A'Shawn Robinson, DT/DE, Alabama
The Redskins defense needs help up the middle in a bad way. A'Shawn Robinson would fit right in as a 3-4 DE for the 'Skins. Robinson needs some work as a pass rusher, but his pure power will make him an impactful run-stuffer from the start.
Mock 4.0: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
22. Houston Texans: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Texans continue to stack the offensive side of the ball by drafting a running-mate for DeAndre Hopkins. Corey Coleman's speed and agility will allow him separate and would let Brock Osweiler show off his ability to sling the ball downfield, providing a nice complement to Hopkins.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
Teddy Bridgewater could use a receiver that will go up and get the ball in tight coverage. Josh Doctson is a 6'2" hands-catcher that would help Bridgewater make those tough throws into the teeth of a defense, especially in the red zone.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
The Bengals keep the receiver run going! Cincy lost both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in free agency, leaving an empty space opposite A.J. Green. In this scenario, they fill that space with the prospect many scouts see as the best receiver in the class. If Treadwell falls, I don't expect him to make it past this pick.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
Many mock drafters have the Steelers going produce shopping on Thursday, myself included. Apple is likely to be the best corner on the board at 25, and corner is what Pittsburgh needs. The team could certainly look at the defensive tackle position, but depending on how the board looks, pickings may be slim. Cornerback is the Steelers top need and a corner may very well be the top player left on the board here.
26. Seattle Seahawks: Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi St.
Chris Jones is another tackle making his first appearance in our mock - he has his enticing upside to thank for that. Jones would fit the Seahawks scheme and has the potential to be an excellent replacement for Brandon Mebane, who left in free agency. Seattle may also take a good look at offensive linemen like Germain Ifedi and Cody Whitehair in this spot, or they may look to trade down with a team that wants to pick a QB.
Mock 4.0: Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas St.
27. Green Bay Packers: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
The move back to the outside by Clay Matthews - a smart move, might I add - leaves the Pack in strong need of an inside linebacker. Fortunately, the best inside linebacker is still on the board, a scenario that Green Bay would love to see happen on Thursday. Ragland is receiving top 15 consideration because of his instincts and downhill thumper style, and Dom Capers would be happy to break his fall at 27.
Mock 4.0: Andrew Billings, DT/NT, Baylor
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Artie Burns, CB, Miami (FL)
The Chiefs need someone to fill the void left by Sean Smith and to play across from DROY Marcus Peters. Some have described Burns as raw and undisciplined, but those same words were used to describe Marcus Peters just last year. The Chiefs should have confidence in their ability to get the most out of a young, unpolished defensive back like Burns.
Mock 4.0: Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
29. Arizona Cardinals: Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Ryan Kelly might be as safe a pick as there is in this draft. The Cardinals could stop the revolving door at center with this pick, while getting themselves a smart, straight-up football player.
30. Carolina Panthers: Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE, Oklahoma St.
Charles Johnson is only guaranteed to be in Carolina for one more year, so the Panthers may look for a more permanent option at DE. This may be a bit high for Ogbah, but the Panthers scheme is similar to the one he ran at OSU, which could provide him a better chance at success than anywhere else in the league.
Mock 4.0: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
31. Denver Broncos: Robert Nkemdiche, DT/DE, Ole Miss
Defensive lineman are flying off the boards in this one, and if the Broncos don't move quickly to retool their line after losing Malik Jackson, they may not get the chance in later rounds. Elway took a chance on Shane Ray last year and it paid off; could he do the same with Nkemdiche? If someone can get this young man to focus solely on the game, they will be very happy with the results.
Mock 4.0: Darron Lee, LB, Ohio St.
**NOTE: The draft only has 31 picks because the New England Patriots were stripped of their 2016 first round pick.
Best players left:
Paxton Lynch (QB): I feel that I need to explain this. I do not account for any trading (though I will be publishing a draft trade special very soon). If the draft order stays as is, I don't expect to see Lynch in the first round. However, I don't expect the draft order to stay as is; it's simply too uncertain to be able to be remotely accurate in predicting draft trades.
Darron Lee (LB), Karl Joseph (S), Germain Ifedi (OT), Andrew Billings (DT/NT)
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